A Question of Time

       As a modern civilization we take pride in our technological advancements, and yet as our technology becomes ever more refined and our dependence on it becomes in equal terms ever greater, our civilization becomes increasingly fragile.  When we think of an apocalypse, we often think in terms of the ultimate and momentary destruction of a civilization. For every civilization’s ending, we can trace how its ultimate demise was being constructed simultaneously within the means of its creation.

       Every civilization and empire in history has inevitably collapsed. In virtually every case, this has been the result of negative aspects from within the civilization which developed to such an extent as to either fatally weaken the civilization or to outright cause its ruin.  Often these attributes that led to the civilization’s end, were also at some point in its history, part of what made that civilization great in the first place. If we consider the technologically advanced Mayan empire which grew to become so strong and so large, much of its power was derived from its advanced irrigation systems for agriculture. This technology allowed the Mayans to construct large inter-connected cities which in many ways mirror our own modern world. Nevertheless, the Mayans were dependent on these same irrigation systems to maintain their civilization. With changing weather patterns, their system of irrigation and agriculture collapsed, and along with it, their entire civilization. 

       Over centuries, the Romans developed a massive empire founded on their technology and political bureaucracy.  Their technology enabled them to build a road system throughout their empire which permitted them to move their commerce and military with relative ease.  Their system of aqueducts made it possible for them to keep large cities supplied with fresh water.  The political system of their empire allowed for strong central command with delegated authority which could control its vast territory. 

       The combination of political and technological advancements made the Roman Empire one of the most successful in history; this combination resulted in an unprecedented period of stability which enabled the refinement of civil society.  Yet in time, the powerful central control of the empire and its stability led to its demise. After centuries of success and stability, the central government became bloated and corrupt. Even as the empire had grown large and strong with its first emperors, it began to disintegrate and weaken under a series of weak and ineffective emperors. For the first time in hundreds of years Rome was invaded and sacked.  The Roman Empire in the west came to its end around the termination of the 4^th century.  With the collapse of the central government, the various regions of the empire splintered away and were taken over by either invaders or local leaders; as this process occurred, the technology that had once allowed the Romans to build large and powerful cities virtually all but completely vanished. It would take over 1000 years for Europe to recover the knowledge and engineering capabilities lost in the fall of Rome. 

       Our current civilization is unique in history. For the first time, a civilization is global in reach. The development of our present civilization began slowly over centuries as we first rediscovered the knowledge which had been lost with the fall of Rome, and then augmented it with new technological advancements. With new technology we were able to reach every corner of the globe and eventually tie it together. Whereas former civilizations and empires were maintained within limited territories by means of homogeneous populations and military power, our current global civilization is one of diverse populations tied together by shared technology and shared concepts of civil society.

       Our technology is becoming more and more refined and fragile as we are becoming increasingly dependent on it. We have machinery to help us produce massive quantities of food for billions of people. We have built great highways, constructed railways, and have refrigeration technology; all of which allows for the transportation of mass quantities of food to be made available to millions of people collected in mega cities. We have great reservoirs of water and pumps to provide fresh water to our cities.  Most of our records maintaining the political and financial bureaucracy that keeps our society in order are now efficiently stored and managed by digital means. Many of our civil activities involve computers or smartphones connected through the internet. In each case mentioned, electricity is essential for all of this to continue functioning.  Yet, all of this technology and everything that depends on it is vulnerable to something as simple and unpredictable as a strong solar flare. If such a flare were to erupt from the sun and be oriented directly at earth, it would cause a massive disruption to all the technology that our civilization requires to remain stable.  If such a disruption occurs, the consequences to a population that mainly lives in urban areas that absolutely requires the proper functioning of this technology in order to survive would be catastrophic.

       Beyond the potential for disaster to arise from weaknesses in our infrastructure, there are a number of issues which are equally as dangerous and equally connected to the means we exploit to run our civilization. Chief among the potential problems arising from our current civilization is that of climate change. Much of the energy we use to power our civilization and the machines that maintain it is derived from fossil fuels such as oil and coal. As we burn these natural materials to release energy, we let massive quantities of carbon into the atmosphere which in turn causes the atmosphere to retain more energy from sunlight. The sun’s energy is accumulated in our atmosphere, and this causes the average temperature of the planet to increase. With the increase of average global temperature, the ice at the polar regions of the planet begins to melt, the oceans begin to raise and the increase in heat energy within the oceans and within the atmosphere begin to cause more powerful and more volatile storm systems which become increasingly more damaging to our activities. The increase in temperature also begins to make large areas of the planet near to the equator virtually uninhabitable. The change in temperature causes disruption to weather systems leading to droughts in unusual places which threatens mainly heavily populated areas causing them to be at risk from a lack of fresh drinking water, a lack of water for agriculture, and an increased risk of forest fires.  All of these effects and more resulting from climate change, place extreme pressure on our ability to maintain the stability of our civilization.

       If the problems for our climate caused by our activities are not enough to deal with, the exploitation of natural resources to maintain the lifestyle characteristic of our civilization is equally devastating and unsustainable.  As a population of eight billion citizens, our civilization requires immense amounts of food.  To satisfy this hunger we use machines to clear forests to use the land for agriculture; we use other machines to cultivate that land and fertilizers to ensure the crops grow to specific specifications. As the land is cleared and rains come,  the fertilizers we use on the crops erode away eventually finding their way into the oceans where they help to acidify the water and kill off large portions of marine life. If the stress on aquatic life from poisoning is not horrific enough, then we mass hunt fish species to provide our billions of citizens with fresh sea food. The two activities together are killing our oceans. On land the situation is as bleak, with the destruction of the forests, with increasing urbanization, and with the changing climate caused by our use of fossil fuels, we are destroying the natural habitat of many species. As a result of the pressures and stresses of our civilization’s activities, many species are either extinct already, or are on the verge of extinction. As the earth's biodiversity is being destroyed by our civilization, there is a great risk that the entire interconnected bio system will begin to fail, in turn this will increase the number of extinctions and eventually make life on earth difficult for what life remains, including humans. 

       In science fiction, we portray possible futures, many of them are dystopian or apocalyptic, and yet the scenarios listed here are very possible and a far more catastrophic vision than most science fiction describes.  Over one hundred years ago a solar flare would have only have been an inconvenience, now it could mean the end of our civilization. The means we employ to build and maintain our current world, if left unmodified, will eventually destroy our civilization. This house of cards we have built up is unique in the history of our planet; the fragility of the systems it is built on makes its ultimate collapse but a question of luck in the short term and an inevitability in the long run. Embedded within the characteristics of our civilization which have enabled us to reach such an unparalleled height is the hidden potential and eventual certainty for an equally unparalleled fall.